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Market Insights

Trading Insights: Has a major bull market been triggered?

Copy of Blog Images - Skilling - 2023-06-13T103851.342

Market Talk

Screenshot 2023-06-13 104054
Data as of June 13 2023 6:31 UTC

The above chart illustrates the upside break-out on June 12, 2023.

How bullish are investors on stocks?

Key US economic indicators look very well balanced, and with many other global central banks taking action to get price stability under control, it could be a matter of time before the major advanced global economies follow the US.

The table below shows recent key US economic indicators:

Screenshot 2023-06-13 104234

Investors could feel that the above table suggests:

  • A not too strong US Dollar
  • Robust stock market
  • Low unemployment
  • Inflation remains above the Fed target but it’s moving in the right direction
  • Interest rate normalization
  • Positive GDP growth
  • Wage growth is now well above inflation

Upcoming potential market drivers and key events on deck this week:

TODAY Tuesday, June 13

Wednesday, June 14

  • US Fed interest rate decision

Asset commentary:

  • US 100 Index bullish conditions
  • US 10-Year Bond downside vulnerable

Thursday, June 15

  • ECB Interest rate decision

Asset commentary:

Friday, June 16

  • Bank of Japan rate decision

Asset commentary:

  • USD/JPY bullish conditions could resume on a move above the 141.064 resistance

Today’s economic calendar

US core inflation due today

  • Today’s US inflation data could have an influence on tomorrow's US Fed interest rate decision and policy statement
  • The prospects for very high price action across USD assets remain upon the release of today's US inflation data

Asset spotlight: USD FX pairs, Gold/Silver, and US indices; US100, SP500, and Dowjones 30

Screenshot 2023-06-13 104413
Source: TradingView / J. Knobel June 12 2023 7:38 UTC

Commentary & insights

EUR/USD prospects for further corrective bounce?

Price has now cleared above the short term resistance at 1.0780, improving the prospects for a further price bounce (corrective move) off the 1.0635 key support. See chart 2 for key resistance and support levels.

Screenshot 2023-06-13 104445
Chart 2 EUR/USD as of June 13 2023 7 AM UTC

US 100 Index prospects for further upside extension

Screenshot 2023-06-13 104511
Chart 3 as of June 13 2023 7:06 AM UTC

Technical commentary for US100 Index: Current index price is 14,881. The index is in an uptrend, this can be technically supported by the higher tops and higher bottoms observed on price (daily chart US30 pattern), price being above its longer term valid trendline, as well as its short term valid trendline also being above its tentative very short term trendline (see chart trendlines).

Strong short term (14-25 days) key support can be seen near 14,305, while the prospects for a further price upside extension towards the 15,435 area can not be ruled out provided price can remain above the 14,305 support.

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Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.