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Trading Insights: Wall of red across global stock markets in front of today’s NFP report

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Market Talk

Stock indices fall during last 48 hours - International traders shift to risk-off before today’s US nonfarm payrolls report is released



Since Tuesday (48 hours)

  • US stocks fell -2.3% (S&P 500); potential for a “corrective” price bounce higher provided 3,900 can prove to become established as a key support level
  • EU stocks fell -1.45% (EUSTX 50), approaching key support near 4,190, current price is below its 20 day moving average (bearish), however a “corrective” bounce higher can not be ruled out in the short term (14-25 days)
  • Japan stocks fell -1.23% (JAP225), outlook remains positive, current price above its 20 day moving average
  • China stocks fell -1.57% (China50), outlook looks bearish, current price below its 50 day moving average
  • Brazil stocks managed to trade higher +0.62% (IBRX50), potential trading range, current price consolidating the 2022 downside move

Today’s Economic Events

Japan holds rates at -0.1%; JPY weakest Global 10 FX (G10) pair JPY sells off across the board

  • Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its interest rate at negative -0.10% which triggered FX traders to support higher yielding FX alternatives and sold the JPY

1:30 GMT US Nonfarm payrolls on deck - scope for increased volatility across USD assets

  • Although estimates across the financial media are calling for +200,000 new jobs to have been created during February, there remains scope for a range between +190,000 to +250,000 when the actual number is reported
  • Either a hit or miss, the fact is that the US jobs market remains strong with unemployment at a near 53 year low
Time: GMT+0 Country/Region Economic Indicator Previous Forecast Actual Units
3:00:00 AM Japan BoJ Rate Decision -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% %
1:30:00 PM United States Nonfarm Payrolls 517 200 - -
1:30:00 PM United States Private Payrolls 443 200 - -
1:30:00 PM United States Unemployment Rate 3.4 3.4 - %
1:30:00 PM United States Average Hourly Earnings, m/m 0.3 0.3 - %

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  • EUR/USD current price remains at risk of falling towards the key support levels between the 1.042 - 1.0360 zone, however if price can hold above the September 2022 low - February 2023 upward trendline (see chart 1) then prospects for a “bounce” to retest the 1.07 -1.08 very short term resistances levels (1-13 day) can not be ruled out
  • USD/CAD bull trend seems to be extending, the crossing above the 1.3705 previous key resistance increasing the prospects for further advance towards the 1.390s, provided price does not slip below the 1.3705 previous resistance now tuned support
  • Gold price remains bearish and the strong sell-off on Monday seems to re-enforce the current downtrend theme. The sell-off could confirm that the recent February 27th - March 6th “corrective” move higher is over and that the prevailing multi-week downtrend may continue, otherwise if price can push back above the $1,860 resistance then the prospects for a restart of the November 2022 - February 2023 uptrend increases.

Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.

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