The Skilling NFP Preview - October 2022
US Nonfarm Payrolls
Although US unemployment has increased during July and August, the US jobs market remains very hot!
The September US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) is expected to decrease from 315,000 new jobs created during August to a range between 250,000 to 290,000 new jobs created during September.
Source: US bureau of labor statistics
Hunting for good news on signs of disinflationary pressure
Traders and investors are on the hunt for any signs of marginal disinflationary pressure since the slight uptick in unemployment.
Rate hikes on deck!
Regardless of the September NFP data investors, traders and analysts seem to be betting on another +.075% US FED rate hike in November.
US real estate market at risk?
The jump in inflation and the US FED move to fight back by raising interest rates adds to higher mortgage rates.
Source: Freddie Mac
Do higher interest rates matter if the US unemployment remains near historic lows?
Absolutely, and that’s why the US FED plans to create short term economic pain with higher cost of borrowing in order to cool the economy by offsetting the historic low unemployment rate.
Yes, that’s correct, the US FED plan is to increase the unemployment rate in order to cool inflation!
Why Friday’s NFP report is super important
On one hand the FED has a main job to keep price stability and on the other hand it has to also aim for full employment. So, if Friday’s NFP report can indicate the unemployment rate has moved up this will help the FED in moving closer to fulfilling its mandate for price stability e.g. getting inflation under control.
The FED has already made the decision that its number one priority is to get inflation under control and that means that in order to achieve this they have made the tough decision to cull the jobs market.
More pain for stock markets?
Until there is a steady and consistent drop in the key inflation data stock markets could remain under downside pressure.
Skilling NFP Review for October 07, 2022, Release
The September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is due on Friday October 7th, 2022
| Date & Time | Country | Event | Previous | Forecast | Current Unemployment Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Oct 7, 2022 12:30 PM GMT |
United States | Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | (August) 315,000 |
(September) 250,000 to 290,000 |
3.7% |
Source: US bureau of labor statistics / Skilling
Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.
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