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Trading financial products on margin carries a high degree of risk and is not suitable for all investors. Please ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.

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Market Insights

The Skilling NFP Preview - October 2022

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US Nonfarm Payrolls

Although US unemployment has increased during July and August, the US jobs market remains very hot!

The September US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) is expected to decrease from 315,000 new jobs created during August to a range between 250,000 to 290,000 new jobs created during September.

Source: US bureau of labor statistics

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Hunting for good news on signs of disinflationary pressure

Traders and investors are on the hunt for any signs of marginal disinflationary pressure since the slight uptick in unemployment.

Rate hikes on deck!

Regardless of the September NFP data investors, traders and analysts seem to be betting on another +.075% US FED rate hike in November.

US real estate market at risk?

The jump in inflation and the US FED move to fight back by raising interest rates adds to higher mortgage rates.

Source: Freddie Mac

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Do higher interest rates matter if the US unemployment remains near historic lows?

Absolutely, and that’s why the US FED plans to create short term economic pain with higher cost of borrowing in order to cool the economy by offsetting the historic low unemployment rate.

Yes, that’s correct, the US FED plan is to increase the unemployment rate in order to cool inflation!

Why Friday’s NFP report is super important

On one hand the FED has a main job to keep price stability and on the other hand it has to also aim for full employment. So, if Friday’s NFP report can indicate the unemployment rate has moved up this will help the FED in moving closer to fulfilling its mandate for price stability e.g. getting inflation under control.

The FED has already made the decision that its number one priority is to get inflation under control and that means that in order to achieve this they have made the tough decision to cull the jobs market.

More pain for stock markets?

Until there is a steady and consistent drop in the key inflation data stock markets could remain under downside pressure.

Source: Skilling

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Skilling NFP Review for October 07, 2022, Release

The September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is due on Friday October 7th, 2022

Date & Time Country Event Previous Forecast Current Unemployment Rate
Oct 7, 2022
12:30 PM GMT
United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) (August) 315,000 (September)
250,000 to 290,000
3.7%

Source: US bureau of labor statistics / Skilling

Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.

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