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Market Insights

Trading Insights: NFP data to support the “goldilocks” theme?

Copy of Blog Images - Skilling - 2023-08-04T114503.487

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Chart 1

Chart 1 illustrates the relative percentage performance over the last 30 days of the US dollar, US stocks, Oil, Gold and US Government 10 year bonds.

Market Talk:

It remains a golden economic period

Screenshot 2023-08-04 114731
Source: Tradingview 4/8/2023 8:41 UTC

Much hype across the financial media around today’s US nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

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Indeed, the monthly US jobs report is a key indicator and tends to set the tone for financial markets around the world, but with the US employment rate at near all time lows, even if the NFP report offers any big surprises the fact will remain, at least for now, that the employment situation is strong.

Meanwhile, the US Dowjones has been outperforming Asian and European broad based stock indices during the last 30 days.

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Chart 2

Chart 2 illustrates the relative percentage performance over the last 30 days of the US Dowjones 30, Japan 225, and EU Stocks 50 indices.


Today’s economic calendar

It will need to take a big jump in the US unemployment rate to shift the current “goldilocks” job conditions

  • US NFP consensus looking at 200,000 new jobs created during July
  • The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.6%
  • Average hourly earnings growth expected at 0.3%, which is slightly lower than the June 0.36% growth rate

Screenshot 2023-08-04 114913
Source: TradingView / J. Knobel August 4 2023 7:15 AM UTC


Trading prospective:

Dowjones 30 - bullish conditions intact

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Technical commentary: Dowjones 30 current price $35,337 appears to have resumed the longer term uptrend after breaking out of the June - July trading range (see chart). Provided price can remain above the 34,500 support (weekly chart) the prospects for an extension move toward $37,315 can not be ruled out. Downside risk below 34,500 could expose the lower key support near the $32,170s.

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Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.