Trading Insights: Energy crisis? US natural gas prices down -47% last 3 months
Market Talk
US natural gas exports in liquid form (LNG) have jumped +14% year to date vs the same period last year, at the same time US Nat Gas prices have lost -57% from peak prices 1 year ago
Commentary:
Weekly US Natural Gas inventories due at 3:30 GMT today
- Weekly inventories have been above the 5 year average
- The average 5 year drawdown for this time of year is -107bcf (billions of cubic feet)
- The weekly inventories report is expected to see a drawdown of -80bcf (billions of cubic feet)
Bottom line: The above average nat gas inventories plus the lower drawdown expectations may hold down US Nat Gas prices. However, any surprise largest drawdown in today’s inventories report could renew the February 22 2023 - March 03 2023 corrective move and lift prices higher.
Upside prospects for longs in the short term (14-25 days) spotted near the $3.6s while downside risk seen below the $2.4 support.
Today’s Economic Events
US Natural Gas Inventories
- US Natural Gas consumption is forecasted to have fallen -5% during the previous 3 months, while US natural gas prices have fallen over -47% during the same period
| Time: GMT+0 | Country/Region | Economic Indicator | Previous | Forecast | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:30:00 PM | United States | Initial Jobless Claims | 190 | 195 | - |
| 3:30:00 PM | United States | Natural Gas Stocks w/w | -81 | -80 | Bcf |
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Cross asset bullet points:
- EUR/GBP bullish conditions remain; eyes on the 0.8930 and 0.8990 upside provided price can hold adobe the 0.8860 short term support
- USD/CAD bull trend in play after breaking above the 1.3705 key resistance; eyes are on the 1.38s provided price does not slip below the 1.3705 previous resistance now tuned support
- Gold price remains bearish and the strong sell-off on Monday seems to re-enforce the current downtrend theme. The sell-off could confirm that the recent February 27th - March 6th “corrective” move higher is over and that the prevailing downtrend may continue, provided the price falls below the bear market trigger spotted at $1,804
Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.
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