Trading Insights: US30 hits key support; signal for new longs to enter the market?
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Skilling Writers Team
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Market Talk
FOMC meeting minutes indicated that almost all committee members agreed it's time to “step down” the pace of interest rate hikes
Key FOMC points
- US Fed officials indicated that the US economy is resilient
- Most committee members in favor of the previous 0.25% hike, but a few had been in favor of a 0.5% hike
Dow 30 Index reaction after the FOMC minutes where released:
US30 Index Weekly Chart
Scope for a 1,000 point trading range in the short term (14-25 days) see chart below; lower end of range seen near 32,950; upper end of range spotted near 33,960; a break below the lower end (32,950) may signal a bear trigger for a deep downside move; on the upside, a break above the 33,960 could trigger a resumption of the October 13th 2022 - December 13th 2022 uptrend.
Today’s Economic Events
Eurozone harmonized index of consumer inflation (HICP)
- Eurozone inflation data is the EU sessions main event today
- A slight increase in Eurozone inflation is expected
- Either way, today’s Eurozone inflation data should not remove the risk that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike at least 0.5% in March
| Time: GMT+0 | Country/Region | Economic Indicator | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00:00 AM | EU | HICP (f) y/y (inflation) | 8.5 | 8.6 | - | % |
| 10:00:00 AM | EU | HICP (f) m/m (inflation) | -0.4 | -0.2 | - | % |
| 1:30:00 PM | US | GDP annualized QQ (2nd) | 2.9 | 2.9 | - | % |
| 1:30:00 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 200 | - | - |
| 1:30:00 PM | US | Continuing Claims | 1696 | 1700 | - | - |
| 3:30:00 PM | US | Natural Gas Stocks w/w | - | - | - | Bcf |
| 4:00:00 PM | US | Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR w/w | 16.283 | - | - | bbl |
Upcoming Economic Calendar Events and Notes
Friday February 23: EUR/USD in focus
- German consumer confidence
- US Core PCE: personal income and spending
Cross-asset commentary
- USD is around 0.4% higher against the majors over the last 5 days, however after yesterday's FOMC meeting minutes the USD has shifted to a softer position in a signal that investors may be embracing higher risk-taking on reduced fears that the US will enter a recession
EUR/NOK
Multi-week higher tops and higher bottoms on price indicate a dow pattern uptrend; provided price can hold above the 10.9 key support, the potential for a continuation of the prevailing uptrend remains for a move towards 11.05 in the short term (5-13 days), otherwise if price fails to hold above the 10.9 key support, the scope for a price correction lower can not be ruled out
Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.
