Trading Insights: Dow 30 hits key support; signal for new longs to enter the market?
Market Talk
FOMC meeting minutes indicated that almost all committee members agreed it's time to “step down” the pace of interest rate hikes
Key FOMC points
- US Fed officials indicated that the US economy is resilient
- Most committee members in favor of the previous 0.25% hike, but a few had been in favor of a 0.5% hike
Dow 30 Index reaction after the FOMC minutes where released:
Dow 30 Index Weekly Chart
Scope for a 1,000 point trading range in the short term (14-25 days) see chart below; lower end of range seen near 32,950; upper end of range spotted near 33,960; a break below the lower end (32,950) may signal a bear trigger for a deep downside move; on the upside, a break above the 33,960 could trigger a resumption of the October 13th 2022 - December 13th 2022 uptrend.
Today’s Economic Events
Eurozone harmonized index of consumer inflation (HICP)
- Eurozone inflation data is the EU sessions main event today
- A slight increase in Eurozone inflation is expected
- Either way, today’s Eurozone inflation data should not remove the risk that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike at least 0.5% in March
| Time: GMT+0 | Country/Region | Economic Indicator | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00:00 AM | EU | HICP (f) y/y (inflation) | 8.5 | 8.6 | - | % |
| 10:00:00 AM | EU | HICP (f) m/m (inflation) | -0.4 | -0.2 | - | % |
| 1:30:00 PM | US | GDP annualized QQ (2nd) | 2.9 | 2.9 | - | % |
| 1:30:00 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 200 | - | - |
| 1:30:00 PM | US | Continuing Claims | 1696 | 1700 | - | - |
| 3:30:00 PM | US | Natural Gas Stocks w/w | - | - | - | Bcf |
| 4:00:00 PM | US | Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR w/w | 16.283 | - | - | bbl |
Upcoming Economic Calendar Events and Notes
Friday February 23: EUR/USD in focus
- German consumer confidence
- US Core PCE: personal income and spending
Cross-asset commentary
- USD is around 0.4% higher against the majors over the last 5 days, however after yesterday's FOMC meeting minutes the USD has shifted to a softer position in a signal that investors may be embracing higher risk-taking on reduced fears that the US will enter a recession
EUR/NOK
Multi-week higher tops and higher bottoms on price indicate a dow pattern uptrend; provided price can hold above the 10.9 key support, the potential for a continuation of the prevailing uptrend remains for a move towards 11.05 in the short term (5-13 days), otherwise if price fails to hold above the 10.9 key support, the scope for a price correction lower can not be ruled out
Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.
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