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Oil to $200? Demand destruction, recession?
There’s a definite feeling that “everything changed” in global energy markets after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. No going back to the way things were. No way for Russia to return to the international fold.
Stock of the week: Microsoft
Surveying the absolute havoc in markets over these past few days/weeks, it’s hard to know where to look and what to do next. Uncertainty is king and it’s still early to assess if this conflict will permanently alter market assumptions. At times like this, it probably makes sense to focus on big companies that have a lot of strings to their bow plus high transparency and a business model that’s well understood.
German stocks plunging, Hong Kong index nears March 2020 lows...
The waves of bad news just keeps washing over financial markets this week. Germany is seen as the biggest loser and analysts seem convinced that stagflation is the best case scenario for Europe’s largest economy. Avoiding recession in the next 12 months will be a serious challenge.
Euro analysis interest rate outlook
Flash HICP inflation increased to 5.8% y/y in Feb, up from 5.1% y/y in Jan. The increase was largely due to an increase in commodity prices which are likely to push inflation even higher in coming months. Higher inflation though does not mean higher interest rates.
Euro Collapsing: Overextended or Justified?
The euro’s had a tough time of it recently. Since the 23rd of February the euro has fallen against every major currency. Over the course of the following seven trading days, these are the high to low swings...