Trading Insights: Crisis? What Crisis? US indices are actually higher this week!
Market Talk
Price is king. Price is a leading indicator. Profession traders follow price, not news headlines
Profession traders understand that price is everything Price moves seconds, minutes, days, weeks, and months before news, earnings reports, and even key economic data. This is because behind the news, earnings and data there are people and analysts who see the information first. Professional traders study price action to see where the money is flowing, if prices are rising or falling, professional traders will assume the “insiders” and “analysts” are taking action.
Bottom line: news is a lagging indicator
- The above chart illustrates the percentage moves of the three major US stock market indices from Monday March 13th 2023 to Friday Market 17th 7:40 GMT.
- The largest and most important 630 US companies are represented in the above illustrated indices.
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2023 remains a relatively good year for most European and US stock indices
| Stock Index | 2023 year to date (YTD) % |
|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 Index | 15.01% |
| CAC 40 Index | 8.53% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 Index | 8.52% |
| Ibex 35 Index | 8.03% |
| DAX Stock Index | 7.49% |
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | -2.72% |
| Hang Seng Index | -2.92% |
| Norway OBX Index | -3.22% |
| Brazil Bovespa Index | -5.74% |
| SGX CNX Nifty Index | -6.18% |
January - March 2023
Today’s Economic Events
- Euro area inflation year on year is expected to remain elevated near 8.5%
- United States consumer sentiment index is expected to increase 1 point
| Time: GMT+0 | Country/Region | Economic Indicator | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00:00 AM | Sweden | Unemployment Rate | 7.6 | 7.6 | 8.2 | % |
| 10:00:00 AM | Euro area | HICP (f) y/y (inflation) | 8.5 | 8.5 | - | % |
| 10:00:00 AM | Euro area | HICP (f) m/m (inflation) | 0.8 | 0.8 | - | % |
| 1:15:00 PM | US | Industrial Production m/m | 0 | 0.5 | - | % |
| 1:15:00 PM | US | Capacity Utilization | 78.3 | 78.5 | - | % |
| 2:00:00 PM | US | Consumer Sentiment | 67 | 68 | - | - |
Cross asset bullet points:
Euro Stoxx 50 Index remains bullish in the medium term (13-26 weeks)
- Current price is above both the 13 and 26 week moving averages
- 13 week rate of change is above its zero line (bullish)
- Above 4,072 buyers may have eyes on the 4,270s and 4,520 further out
- Below 4,072 sellers may have eyes on the 3,800 round number
NASDAQ 100 Index outlook remains bullish over the short term (14-25 days)
- Current price is above both the 9 and 18 day moving averages
- MACD indicator above its signal line (bullish)
- Relative vigor index above its signal line confirms the MACD trend following indicator
- Above 12,175 buyers may have eyes on the 13,070s
- Below 12,175 sellers may have eyes on the 11,713 lower support
Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.
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