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CFDs come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should understand how CFDs work and consider if you can take the risk of losing your money.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.

Market Insights

Trading Insights: Risk to inflation remains on the upside while major indices find support

Daily insight

Risk to inflation remains on the upside while major indices find support

Market Talk

Economic balance in play as Central banks look set to fight high inflation for many more years

US FOMC Projections

Economic indicator Current Longer run beyond 2025
Change in real GDP 2.7 1.8
Unemployment rate 3.4 4.5
Inflation 6.4 2
Federal funds rate 4.75 3.1

Source: Fed reserve December 14, 2022 economic projections

The US could avoid a deep recession as data suggests that there are few signs that the economy is overheating, and a strong jobs market reduces the risk of a deep recession.

  • Fed dot plot suggests rates to hit 5.1% during 2023 before falling to 2%
  • Looks like inflation will remain higher for longer; at least till 2025
  • Employment market to remain strong even if unemployment increases +1% from the current historic lows

Today’s Economic Events

US durable goods orders on deck: Could investors see a weaker durable goods orders outcome as a positive?

  • A deceleration of durable goods orders could imply that lower goods prices may follow in the coming months
  • Lower goods prices could be viewed by investors as deflationary
  • This would Increase the odds for the Fed to reach its 2025 2% inflation target
Time: GMT+0 Country/Region Economic Indicator Previous Forecast Actual Units
12:30:00 AM Australia Companies Gross Operating Profits % SA Q/Q -12.4 1.8 10.6 %
7:00:00 AM Sweden Retail Sales y/y -8 - -7.5 %
1:30:00 PM US Durable Goods New Orders m/m 5.6 -3.9 - %
3:00:00 PM US NAR Pending Home Sales 76.9 - - -

Cross-asset commentary

SPX500 Index finding price support in front of today’s US durable goods orders?

SPX500 Index: 3,900 seen as the next key support provided price fails to hold above the 3,950 level; short-term upside resistance seen near 4,060s, which if price can manage to clear opens up the prospect for a restart of the December 22, 2022 - February 02, 2023 uptrend.

EUR/JPY: the strong close on Friday to build the case for keeping the uptrend alive?

EUR/JPY the stronger close on Friday (Feb 24th, 2023) strengthens the case for a continuation of the multi-week uptrend; prospects for a further advance towards 144.5 can not be ruled out provided price can remain above the 143 previous resistance now turned support.

Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.