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CFDs come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should understand how CFDs work and consider if you can take the risk of losing your money.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.

Market Insights

Trading Idea: Jerome Powell has warned the markets, did you hear his message?

Daily insight

Market Talk

The best central bankers are the best communicators

The Fed has warned markets that on the way towards bringing down inflation to their 2% target, the Fed will break things along the way.

  • Banks will lend less: Every investor, trader, borrower, government, and company should understand that tighter credit conditions are on the way.
  • Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell communicated the above message very clearly. The Fed is embarking on installing tighter credit conditions as a supporting tool to help fight higher inflation
  • This will be a period of “bumpy” inflation slowdown i.e. expect more bank/corporate/mortgage payment failures etc…

Fed Chairman said that “A pathway to a soft landing still exists”

Stock Indices 5 day percentage moves

  • Global stock indices gaining in the background over the last 5 days

Jerome Powell’s clear communication to the markets could be a supporting factor for investors willingness to support stock markets

Stock Index Last % Day % moves
Euro Stoxx 50 Index 4,195.70 3.98%
FRA40 Index 7,131.12 3.56%
DAX Stock Index 15,216.19 3.26%
ESP35 Index 9,009.30 2.86%
US100 Index 12,567.15 2.58%
Swiss Market Index 10,782.28 2.53%
Norway OBX Index 1,073.18 1.61%
SPX500 Index 3,936.97 1.16%
SGX CNX Nifty Index 17,151.90 1.06%
Nikkei 225 Index 27,466.61 0.90%
US30 Industrials Average 32,030.11 0.49%
Hang Seng Index 19,591.43 0.26%
ASX 200 Index 7,015.60 -0.75%
Brazil Bovespa Index 100,221.00 -2.39%
FTSE 100 7,460.00 -3.51%
CBOE Volatility Index 21.46 -6.70%

Today’s Economic Events

  • Swiss central bank (SNB) increased 0.5% as expected, inflation seen as persisting which could support even higher rate hikes further out
  • Norway central bank (Norges) likely to hike 0.25% with prospects for projections from Norges of more rate hikes if peak inflation remains further away
  • Bank of England (BoE) it's likely that the BoE could leave rates unchanged, the UK is a services-based economy and recent service inflation has been decelerating. This slowdown could support the BoE to remain unchanged in today's rate announcement
Time: GMT+0 Country/Region Economic Indicator Previous Forecast Actual Units
8:30:00 AM Switzerland SNB Policy Rate 1 1.5 1.5 %
9:00:00 AM Norway Interest Rate Decision 2.75 3 - %
12:00:00 PM Great Britain Bank of England Bank Rate 4 4.25 - %
2:00:00 PM US New Home Sales 0.67 0.65 - -
2:30:00 PM US Natural Gas Stocks w/w - - - Bcf
3:00:00 PM Euro area Consumer Confidence (p) -19 -18.2 - -

Cross asset commentary:

Silver entering a bull market cycle The strong price reversal that accrued at $19.90 supports the case for a potential new bull cycle for silver price. Current price is above its 13 and 26 week moving averages (bullish), longs may have their sights on $23.5 and $24.6 further out, while shorts may be looking for a price break below the $21.60 support for a possible retest of the $19.90s.

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EU Stocks 50 Index keeping alive the prospects for the bullish cycle to continue

Strong price recovery supporting the prospects for the EU Stocks 50 Index to continue to push higher. Current price is above its 13 and 26 week moving averages (bullish), rate of change 4 and 13 week are both above their respective signal lines (bullish), strong price support at the 4,072 level which happens to intersect at the multi-month upward trend line adds to support the bullish technical outlook.

Commodities Bullets

  • Gold price remains bullish, higher inflation outlook helping to support price, the price break above $1,960s renews the prospects or the restart of the September bull market, moves towards $2,075 can not be ruled out over the medium term (26-49 days) provided price can hold above the $1,844 lower support
  • Brent crude Oil hitting resistance near $75.5, the recent multi-day upward move looks to be a “corrective bounce”, downside risk remains provided price can not close above $76.5, while the upside on a break above the $76.5s could be capped at $81.65

FX Bullets

  • USD/JPY downtrend remains intact, bearish price extension lower towards a test of the February 2nd near 128.10 can not be ruled out provided price remains below the 132.5 resistance
  • EUR/USD bullish cycle in play, however, price is at risk of a short term correction, trader focus is on the next key resistance area near 1.10, a break above could keep the bullish cycle alive, very short term downside support at 1.0760

Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.