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Market Insights

Trading insights: Bitcoin, Gold, US Dollar, Oil Price Outlook - US Job Data, Inflation Set the Tone

Bitcoin halving: Image of a Bitcoin flying high in the sky.

Market insight talking points:

  • Systemic risks intensify, stocks rally with the economic agenda intensifying - German inflation, US GDP and more.
  • Greyscale court ruling sends Bitcoin soaring above $27,000.
  • AUD/USD drops after Australia on CPI miss, oil climbs to fibonacci resistance.

Can stocks hold onto gains for the remainder of the week?

In the current economic environment, where interest rates are at decade highs and recession risks are rife, fundamentals play a critical role in driving financial markets.

But while the global growth outlook remains uncertain, stocks and other risk assets have remained resilient, shaking off the potential for a gloomy path ahead.

With disappointing job data JOLTS data out of the US showing a decrease in the number of job openings for the month of July (8.82 million vs 9.46 million expected) showing that the labour market may be losing steam, expectations for the Fed to continue to hike rates wanned, triggering a rally in stocks.

As focus remains on inflation, interest rates and recession fears, the economic agenda for today could assist with driving volatility and price action for the remainder of the day.

Although there is a large number of data releases scheduled throughout the day, the German inflation print, US GDP and ADP employment change are of particular importance, which could provide additional clues on the trajectory of the Fed and the ECB.

Economic Calendar - 30 August 2023

Economic Calendar

If rate expectations fall and recession risks rise, gold prices may benefit while lower inflation readings could help stocks hold onto recent gains.

Bitcoin soars on Greyscale ruling, prices jump back above $27,000

For Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies, the decision made by the US Court of Appeal in favour of Greyscale in their lawsuit against the US SEC (securities exchange commission) sent Bitcoin prices flying, before peaking at $28,142.

With the SEC denying Greyscale’s application to convert the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust into an Bitcoin ETF, the ruling made by the US Court of Appeal could help pave the way for the first Bitcoin ETF, which would allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without having to own the coin itself.

Bitcoin daily chart

Bitcoin Daily chart

Prepared using TradingView

With BTC/USD slipping back below the 200 - week MA at $27,604, a move higher and a break of $28,000 could see prices move towards the next level of resistance at $28,737, the 61.8% fibonacci of the 2020 - 2021 move.

If prices fall below $27,000, it is possible for a sharper correction to drive the major cryptocurrency back toward $25,500.

Visit our blog to learn more about support and resistance trading levels

Oil technical outlook

After falling to a monthly low of $77.82 last week, WTI crude has rebounded, sending prices above the key psychological level of $80.00. With prices currently trading 1.77% higher this week, the 38.2% fibonacci from the 2020 - 2022 move has stepped in as resistance at $81.83, with the 20 - day moving average providing temporary support for the daily move at $81.26.

Oil weekly chart

WTI weekly chart

Chart prepared using TradingView

A hold above $80 and a break of fib resistance could open the door for a potential retest of the August high of $84.86. In contrast, a move below $80 could see prices heading back toward $77.82.

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Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.