Trading Insights: AUD FX position building in front of Australian rate decision
Market Talk
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to hike another +0.25% at 3:30 am GMT tomorrow
When is the next RBA meeting date? ● Tomorrow Tuesday March 7th 2023 (3:30 am GMT)
Key points:
Australians getting paid more as wages grew +3.3% y/y, labour market showing slight signs that the tightness (employers can’t find workers) is easing which may slow the pace of increasing wages
At 7.8% Australian inflation is still too high. Although wage growth may slow, consumer prices have been increasing
Australian Dollar FX Movers last 5-days
- The Aussie has been stronger against the GBP, CAD, USD, and the Swiss Franc
- The EURO and the Japanese YEN (JPY) have been trading strong against the AUD
Today’s Economic Events
Swiss consumer price index (CPI / inflation) higher than expected
- Swiss Franc (CHF) gains during early EU trading after the upside surprise in Swiss CPI (inflation)
| Time: GMT+0 | Country/Region | Economic Indicator | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30:00 AM | Switzerland | CPI m/m | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | % |
| 7:30:00 AM | Switzerland | CPI y/y | 3.3 | 3 | 3.4 | % |
| 10:00:00 AM | Euro area | Retail Sales m/m | -2.7 | 0.8 | - | % |
| 10:00:00 AM | Euro area | Retail Sales y/y wda | -2.8 | -1.8 | - | % |
| 3:00:00 PM | US | Factory New Orders | 1.8 | -1.5 | - | % |
| 3:00:00 PM | US | Factory Orders ex-transport | -1.2 | - | - | % |
FX commentary
AUD/CHF ( Australian Dollar vs Swiss Franc) potential further weakness for the AUD/CHF, current price is below its 200 day moving average (bearish); multi-week lower tops and lower bottoms on price (bearish); downside below 0.6367 places 0.6161 as lower target, however the prospect for a test of the key 0.6367 resistance can not be ruled out in the very short term (5-13 days).
EUR / JPY the bullish medium term trend (25-50 days) seems to remain intact, higher tops and higher bottoms on price indicate a dow pattern uptrend is in place while current price is above its multi-week tentative uptrend line, the recent price pull back from the March 02 2023 high near the 145.8 resistance appears to be a “corrective” move from the February 10 2023 low - March 02 2023 highs, provided price can break above the 145.8 resistance the prospects for a further advance towards the 146.7s can not be ruled out, however a break below the 143 lower support may suggest the end of the prevailing multi week uptrend.
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