Trading Insights: A complex world and the commodity trade

Commentary & insights

Energy:

US Natural Gas prices surge +7.7% last 5 days on reduced supply risk and increased demand on warmer weather.

US Natural Gas in the spotlight:

• Speculation that Russian gas disruptions could push up further demand for US Natural Gas.
• Warmer weather to boost demand for natural gas

US Natural Gas current price $2.822 is above the key support near $2.06. Upside extension prospects towards the $3’s - $3.5s can not be ruled out. Downside risk below $2.06.

Wheat vs USD breaks above 10 month trendline, implying the prevailing downtrend's end. Current price faces resistance near $767, a break above could expose the $810-$812 as extension.

• Speculation that Russia could withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal that expires on July 17th could be providing underlying very short term (5-13 days) price support for Wheat prices.

Wheat USD current price is above its 10 month downward trend line, current price is above its 4, 9, and 18 day moving averages, MACD is above equilibrium, and RSI is pointing higher, indicating that the prospects for higher prices remain.

Current price $764
Upside prospects for $812
Downside risk below $680

---

Today’s economic calendar

Source: TradingView / J. Knobel June 26 2023 7:45 UTC